Saturday, 04 July 2009
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No one interested in being published in our time can afford to be so naive as to believe a book will make it merely because it's good.

Richard Curtis
ARE WE ON TRACK?
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Written by Jan Strasser   
Life seems rare. Earth may be the only planet in our solar system to have it or it may have started elsewhere, like Mars, and transferred here. Regardless, we are now alone in any practical sense. The rest of the galaxy should have the same odds for life. Even then, many of those worlds would be populated. Quite a few of those would have intelligent life all because of the sheer number. On those planets, there would be some individuals who study that life, cataloguing remarkable data. What would a sociologist find as she pondered, looking out her window with the great view?
We know humans go through specific stages before they become adults. The child psychologist Jean Piaget described four levels. He believed each level was characterized by learning specific tasks with the direct response of new development and growth in the brain. Animals, too, go through similar steps, with rates that are much shorter.  The common element is the need to go through steps in a certain order. Without that order, development is disrupted and can result in incomplete maturity.
Progress, then, seems to go along a prescribed route, but what about the development of a species? Could such steps exist here as well? Humans have gone through a loose social grouping to civilization as we know it today. People are more educated, live longer and have even visited the moon. Third world countries try to reach these goals. They skip steps along the way, and often fail in their task. So would this be a pattern?
First, our galactic scientist would need to define success. What would be the goal that would indicate a mature species? She would say success for any life would be survival-a survival that is healthy and not easily taken away. That survival would be indicated by having a stable or increasing number above the survival threshold. The species would be in more than one location, on different planets, to further add to the stability. What would this species look like, what would be their characteristics?
Our galactic scientist would argue you need a social creature. The degree would vary by specie and, of course, the environment they were in. It is the ability to pool minds together that would be the key.
In Step I, the creatures would start by wandering around in small groups, but soon discover that the more minds involved the more problems are solved. Larger groups are formed.
In Step II, agriculture is discovered. Progress is made because it is much easier to stay in one place and learn how to increase the yield of food. In addition, group to group raiding develops to obtain resources, speeding development along.
Step III finds the groups becoming even larger with the advent of more specialization. New professions spring up and the creatures are even more dependent on each other. Leaders emerge, encouraging the division of labor. Most creatures would end up as Labor rather than as Leader. Many are still wanting but better off than being on their own. Our sociologist now looks for war, not the small skirmishes of before. Population increases and also goes through some die offs due to disease and famine.
Onto Step IV, our creatures have progressed to the point of more or less universal education. Even in our creature’s group, though, some of the old reasons for poverty still exist. However, poverty means a lack of material wealth, not the grinding needs of Step II or III. Our creature’s offspring are better off than they were. It is where our 1st world countries are now, or actually were a few years ago. Not all groups are in the same step, but they are going through the steps.
Step V calls for a back step. The creatures become complacent. They have lived long enough to forget what it is to just survive. They don’t believe that there is any danger that was so familiar to their ancestors; starvation, disease and death. Other Groups in Step III threaten war. Those in Step V are confused; have trouble believing the threat is serious. Some want to test it a little, some allot, and some are appalled at even the thought. 
Wisdom of the past is questioned; distrust of the leaders and philosophers is common. Making yourself vulnerable is said to be the “only“ answer. That kind of peace, the kind of “can’t we all just get along” is now a precarious way to look at the problem. Our creatures are trying to reach a higher level of behavior. The old way, though, of the strong attacking the weak is still a reality. Even if Step V groups could easily wipe out Step III; if they lower their shield, odds are good they will be killed. The hard lesson to learn is how to survive and use the higher moral values. 
Our sociologist would remind us that each step is necessary to development, even if this feels uncomfortable. All of it was necessary: leaders, division of labor, war, the elite, the hoards of peasants and the mighty priests. The raw material each species has gets them through the each step. It all works well until you come to a place where raw is insufficient. In order to accomplish the next step, all resources must be fully utilized, especially minds. She would cite a first step to be the elimination of the old “starvation, disease and death”; add to that guaranteeing the freedoms of individuals. This would allow our creatures to feel “safe” enough to reach out and listen to its fellows, even those from the other groups. In this environment, thorough education without political agenda could take you to the final step.
Step VI, the enormous technical task of leaving the planet. This raises the odds of survival if a disaster occurs on the home planet. Accomplishing Step VI is like becoming an adult, like a parent who puts their life on hold to care for its offspring; our creatures now care more about their fellows than themselves. They realize caring for their fellows means survival for themselves, just as we now understand that caring for our children helps ensure our survival. Our sociologist sits back and marvels that any species has managed it. She knows that many did not. The old fear of blowing ourselves up, the inevitable fractioning of a society that is trying to figure things out all contribute to possible failure. As species become more powerful, so do their mistakes.
So are we on track? Will we survive and achieve the stars? We have made it to the moon; we have redefined war even when we fight those who have not. Now we question all we do, to the point we are vulnerable. I would say we are in Step V. We have the task of finding a way to balance protection and cooperation. My gut says we will, but we will certainly stumble on the way.

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